College football ATS: Vegas thinks OSU in for UCF battle

College football ATS: Vegas thinks OSU in for UCF battle

Todd Lisenbee: In 2021, the Cowboys beat OU and then played the next week in Dallas and lost to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship game. Before that, the last time Oklahoma State played seven days after beating Oklahoma was in 1998, when they lost their next two games to A&M and Texas.

Todd Lisenbee

By Todd Lisenbee

| Nov 9, 2023, 12:00pm CST

Todd Lisenbee

By Todd Lisenbee

Nov 9, 2023, 12:00pm CST

The margins are so thin sometimes between a winning and a losing weekend. Houston and UCF were both favored by three points or less. Both won, but both didn’t cover. That’s the difference for me between 7-4 and 5-6.

I guess I also whiffed on Bedlam. Admittedly, it was a tough game to pick. I leaned on history instead of recency, and the Cowboys got the last laugh. There are some interesting lines this week, post-Bedlam. Vegas thinks OSU will suffer a Bedlam hangover and OU will bounce back big.

Last week: 5-6

This season: 58-51

*All games Saturday

Texas Tech at No. 16 Kansas (-4.5), 11 a.m.: The Jayhawks have quietly played a tough schedule over the past four games, first losing at Stillwater, then beating Oklahoma and winning at Iowa State. Texas Tech is dangerous, and with Kansas State looming, I’m thinking the Jayhawks take the foot off the gas pedal a little. Pick: Texas Tech +4.5

No. 3 Michigan (-4.5) at No. 10 Penn State, 11 a.m.: At the time of writing this, nothing has yet been decided on the immediate future of Jim Harbaugh. That doesn’t matter one bit to me. James Franklin’s atrocious record against Top 5 and Top 10 teams at Penn State simply can’t be ignored. Pick: Michigan -4.5

Tulsa at No. 23 Tulane (-23), 11 a.m.: Things have gone south rather quickly for the Golden Hurricane, punctuated by a defeat by a Charlotte team last week that had just suspended players the week before. Going to play a ranked team on the road isn’t the way to fix things. Expect this one to be ugly. Pick: Tulane -23

Baylor at No. 25 Kansas State (-20.5), 2 p.m.: This is only Baylor’s third road game of the season, but ironically, the Bears are 2-0 on the road this year. There’s a reason why they are nearly three-touchdown underdogs to the Wildcats on Saturday. I know what you’re thinking, and yes, Kansas State may also be looking ahead to the Sunflower State showdown next week, but to play a good team close on the road, you have to run the ball well. Baylor is 121st in the country in rushing yards per carry. Pick: Kansas State -20.5

No. 15 Oklahoma State (-2.5) at UCF, 2:30 p.m.: The Cowboys have won five straight games, both on the scoreboard and against the spread. We are in some rare air with Oklahoma State football this week. In 2021, the Cowboys beat OU and then played the next week in Dallas and lost to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship game. Before that, the last time Oklahoma State played seven days after beating Oklahoma was in 1998, when they lost their next two games to A&M and Texas. All of those teams mentioned were ranked opponents and good teams. UCF is not. Pick: Oklahoma State -3 — Cowboys run away late, win 31-14.

No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington (-9.5), 2:30 p.m.: Kyle Whittingham’s Utes got embarrassed by Oregon a week after upsetting USC in Los Angeles. With a nice bounce-back win last week against Arizona State, I’m betting on the veteran coach to have his team ready for the road challenge on Saturday. Pick: Utah +9.5

West Virginia at No. 17 Oklahoma (-13.5), 6 p.m.: It’s been puzzling to watch Oklahoma make mistake after mistake the past few weeks after being so good early in the season. What’s the most worrying is that I think it’s a multi-pronged issue. There are individual performances that just aren’t cutting it. There are momentary lapses in judgment that just aren’t cutting it. There is a lack of situational awareness that just is not cutting it. The good news is that a tweak here and there can fix a lot of those problems. The bad news is that it doesn’t happen overnight. I expect Oklahoma to play better, but West Virginia is good enough that I can’t in good faith pick the OU team I’ve watched the last three weeks win by two touchdowns. Pick: West Virginia +13.5 — Oklahoma has its moments but wins by one score, 37-31.

Cincinnati at Houston (-2), 6 p.m.: Houston is playing a lot better right now, especially on the offensive side of the ball and Cincinnati just looks listless. I don’t see a win on the Bearcats conference schedule this year unless they get it Saturday. Pick: Houston -2

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia (-10.5), 6 p.m.: Ole Miss has the unfortunate distinction of catching both Alabama and Georgia on the road this season. The Rebels couldn’t get anything going offensively at Alabama and I expect the same between the hedges on Saturday. Pick: Georgia -10.5

No. 7 Texas (-10) at TCU, 6:30 p.m.: We know that Texas can score the football. They’ve scored 30 or more points in every game this season. You can’t say the same for TCU. Offensively, it has been a slog for the Frogs. I’m sure there will be some extra juice in this game with Texas leaving for the SEC, but I just don’t think TCU can score enough to keep it close. Pick: Texas -10

Iowa State (-7) at BYU, 9:15 p.m.: I’m banking on three things: the late start for the Iowans, the look-ahead factor (Texas and Kansas State coming up next for the ‘Clones) and the weirdness of that trip to Provo with this pick. These teams played four times between 1968-1974. Iowa State won all four of them. Look for the Cougars to get on the board Saturday night. Pick: BYU +7

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Todd Lisenbee is the host of The Todd Pod with Todd Lisenbee on the Sellout Crowd network. He has been a producer/talk show host at WWLS, The Sports Animal and 107.7 The Franchise during a Oklahoma broadcasting career that spans to 2002. Todd has broadcast high school basketball, football and soccer play-by-play since 2003 and is currently the voice of the UCO Bronchos, a role he has been in since 2018. He can be reached at @ToddOnSports on Twitter/X or Instagram or via email at [email protected].

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